Weather Shocks, Domestic Migration and Human Capital

Existing evidence on how climate shocks affect migration and human capital in developing countries remains mixed. This paper offers a novel district-level analysis of how weather shocks influence internal migration and education outcomes in India. Using a unique panel of 390 districts from 1995 to 2011, we estimate how deviations in rainfall and temperature- locally, within-state, and nationally affect migration inflows, and how these shifts impact primary and middle school completion in destination districts. We find that adverse rainfall shocks in other parts of India significantly reduce in-migration, with low rainfall in out-of-state districts lowering inflows by up to 21%. In contrast, high and low temperature shocks elsewhere raise in-migration by 6–9%. These shifts modestly affect human capital: a one standard deviation rise in distant low rainfall shocks reduce primary completion by 0.5 percentage points and also lower middle school completion. Conversely, temperature-induced migration inflows are found to increase school completion- by up to 0.18 points at the primary level and 0.09 at middle school. By linking spatial climate variability to migration and education, this study informs understanding of general equilibrium adaptation effects and underscores the need for policy coordination across regions to strengthen climate resilience and educational outcomes.