Forecasting sustainable fashion futures: Backcasting and scenario planning strategies

In recent decades, emerging fashion business models and technologies have unlocked quick and effective ways to respond to consumer trends. Fashion businesses can produce fashion products at an increasingly rapid rate, in large volumes, using an optimised production system. Despite this, fashion businesses and forecasters often struggle to define long-term strategic directions that would competently address environmental and social issues in the industry and meet sustainable development goals (SDGs). Scenario building and backcasting have emerged as viable alternative forecasting methods for envisioning desired outcomes and defining procedures to achieve those outcomes. However, there is limited research on how fashion forecasters can effectively use these methods to develop long-term business strategies. This chapter offers recommendations for devising consumer lifestyle scenarios and guidance for developing retail strategies that address both global challenges and consumer needs. It includes case studies of scenario-building and backcasting methods used by industry practitioners to address SDGs. The chapter also explores the near future of the consumer retail experience with five plausible retailing scenarios for 2040.