Elliott, E.J.R. orcid.org/0000-0002-4387-7967 (2024) The Measurement of Subjective Probability. Elements in Decision Theory and Philosophy . Cambridge University Press ISBN 9781009486965
Abstract
Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.
Metadata
Item Type: | Book |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Edward J. R. Elliott 2024. This article has been published in a revised form in 10.1017/9781009401319. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution or re-use. |
Keywords: | measurement; subjective probability; representation theorem; qualitative probability; belief |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Arts, Humanities and Cultures (Leeds) > School of Philosophy, Religion and History of Science (Leeds) > School of Philosophy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 15 Feb 2024 11:33 |
Last Modified: | 13 Oct 2024 00:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press |
Series Name: | Elements in Decision Theory and Philosophy |
Identification Number: | 10.1017/9781009401319 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:209216 |