Items where authors include "MacKay, Niall"

Article

Hassoun, Zane, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 and Powell, Ben orcid.org/0000-0002-0247-7713 (2025) Kairosis: A method for dynamical probability forecast aggregation informed by Bayesian change point detection. International journal of forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070 (In Press)

Kress, Moshe and MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 (2025) Modeling civilian and militant casualties in asymmetric wars:the case of Gaza 2024. Spectrum of Operational Research. pp. 259-267. ISSN 3042-1470

Lloyd, Peter, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 and Price, Christopher (2024) The Strength of the Wolf is the Pack:U-boat tactics in the Battle of the Atlantic. The Northern Mariner. ISSN 1183-112X (In Press)

Fagan, Brennen orcid.org/0000-0002-8451-920X, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 and Wood, A. Jamie orcid.org/0000-0002-6119-852X (2024) Robustness of steady state and stochastic cyclicity in generalized coalescence-fragmentation models. European physical journal b. 21. ISSN 1434-6028

Powell, Ben orcid.org/0000-0002-0247-7713, Satopaa, Ville, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 et al. (1 more author) (2024) Skew-Adjusted Extremized-Mean:A Simple Method for Identifying and Learning From Contrarian Minorities in Groups of Forecasters. Decision. 173–193. ISSN 2325-9965

Fagan, Brennen orcid.org/0000-0002-8451-920X, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717, Pushkin, Mitya et al. (1 more author) (2021) Stochastic gel-shatter cycles in coalescence-fragmentation models. EPL. 53001. ISSN 1286-4854

Fagan, Brennen orcid.org/0000-0002-8451-920X, Knight, Marina I orcid.org/0000-0001-9926-6092, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 et al. (1 more author) (2020) Change point analysis of historical battle deaths. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). ISSN 1467-985X

Gomez, Alejandro De La Rosa, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 and Regelskis, Vidas orcid.org/0000-0002-0092-6917 (2017) How to fold a spin chain:Integrable boundaries of the Heisenberg XXX and Inozemtsev hyperbolic models. Physics Letters A. pp. 1340-1348. ISSN 0375-9601

MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717, Price, Christopher and Wood, Andrew James orcid.org/0000-0002-6119-852X (2016) Weighing the Fog of War:Illustrating the power of Bayesian methods for historical analysis through the battle of the Dogger Bank. Historical Methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history. pp. 80-91. ISSN 1940-1906

Horwood, Ian, MacKay, Niall orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-4717 and Price, Christopher (2014) Concentration and Asymmetry in Air Combat:Lessons for the Defensive Employment of Air Power. Air Power Review. pp. 68-91. ISSN 1463-6298