Glacier surges on James Ross Island, Antarctica, and their relationship with climate

Although the Antarctic Peninsula has a similar climate to that of other regions hosting surge-type glaciers, only one glacier surge has been previously observed in this region. We examined ice surface velocity, elevation and terminus position changes of Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to identify glacier surges. This revealed only four surges from three glaciers, all on James Ross Island. Gourdon Glacier surged from 2005 to 2007 then again from 2013 to 2018, Kotick Glacier surged from 2013 to 2017 and Whisky Glacier surged from 2020 to 2024. All four surges were characterised by significant advances in glacier terminus position and, for the latter three surges where observations are more abundant, at least an order-of-magnitude speed-up accompanied by ice surface elevation gain in the terminal zone and drawdown of ice from above, as each surge progressed. The landform record and historical imagery suggest additional surges of Kotick Glacier and Gourdon Glacier may have occurred in the second half of the 20th century. Reanalyses, reconstructions and observations of air temperature suggest that atmospheric warming since 1940 has increasingly exposed these and neighbouring glaciers on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and its surrounding islands to conditions that are typical of surge-type glaciers globally. Climate projections indicate that future warming will expose more glaciers on the Peninsula to climatic conditions conducive to surging until the mid-20th century, after which the surge-conducive area remains steady under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and declines under SSP5-8.5. This suggests that surges on the Antarctic Peninsula may become more common over the coming decades, motivating continued monitoring.