Making Warnings Count: 10 Years of Research in High-Impact Weather

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) High-Impact Weather (HIWeather) research project was designed to increase the effectiveness of forecasts and warnings of high-impact weather. In achieving this, it created a global momentum toward a growing partnership between the social and physical sciences in the weather enterprise, building a community of researchers and practitioners who understand the importance of working across disciplines and are passionate about the value of warnings in reducing the impact of weather-related hazards. Through its promotion of “Warning Chain Thinking” within the Warning Value Cycle, it focused attention on the whole warning system, from monitoring and forecasting through communication and response, emphasizing the role of partnerships among disciplines, organizations, decision-makers, and the public. It brought together a wide body of research from multiple disciplines involved in making warnings more effective, in a series of publications which are increasingly used in education, training, and operations. In doing so, it helped bridge gaps between weather information providers, emergency managers, and humanitarian organizations on a global scale. It has provided a community and a body of evidence as a foundation for the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative and for the next generation of warnings research. Significance Statement The article highlights the importance of considering the high-impact weather forecasting and warning chain as an integrated whole, involving a range of actors from different organizations and disciplines. Three strands of science motivated this work: the need for progress in translating weather hazards into impacts; evidence to underpin the appropriate introduction of impact-based forecasts and warnings; and addressing the gap between the science of community response, espoused by humanitarian organizations, and the science of weather information production, exemplified by national weather services.