Modelling the Impact of Transport Planning Policy Upon Land Use

In this paper the results from the validation of an integrated land use and transport model are described. The goodness-of-fit for the forecasts are considered not only for the time horizon, but also in terms of the change over time, which is a much more sensitive test. The sensitivity of the land use and transport forecasts to changes in the monetary cost of travel are examined to see to what extent the location of housing, population, employment and jobs, and the journey to work respond to such changes. The spatial effects of these changes are demonstrated by finding the land use distribution for three concentric rings. The influence of land use changes upon time and money expenditure are examined by using the relevant elements of the generalised cost functions with the trip matrices computed under three different assumptions when the monetary cost of travel is varied: keeping modal split and land use constant, keeping only land use constant, and allowing both to respond. The paper is concluded with discussion of further model improvements and applications of the model.