Navigating carbon neutrality: policy pathways and consistency on industrial decarbonization in China

Climate change has intensified global demands for industrial decarbonization and carbon neutrality. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China’s policy approach is pivotal to international climate governance and the low-carbon transition. This study conducts the first systematic evaluation of China’s industrial decarbonization policy framework established toward the carbon neutrality goal. Through a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric analysis and Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) Index, we analyze 58 national policy documents comprising approximately 610,000 Chinese characters. Results across five key decarbonization pathways show notable disparities in policy consistency: carbon emission abatement achieves perfect consistency (PMC-Index = 9.07), reflecting China’s prioritization of greenhouse gas emission controls, while energy efficiency (8.14) and scientific and technological innovation (8.12) demonstrate good consistency. By contrast, socio-economic risk mitigation (6.97) and circular economy (6.77) pathways only reach acceptable levels, revealing gaps in integrating just transition principles and industrial symbiosis. The asymmetric consistency stems from a misalignment across the five policy pathways, particularly the underdeveloped linkages between decarbonization, circularity, and socio-economic consideration. We recommend strengthening circular economy institutions through sector-specific material flow governance and industrial symbiosis networks, alongside proactive just transition policies such as skill development initiatives and compensatory mechanisms for vulnerable communities. This study contributes to theories of environmental governance and policy mixes, while offering globally applicable insights for reconciling emission reduction with industrial competitiveness and social equity.