Life cycle assessment of power generation with CCS and low-emission natural gas production: how close to zero can the carbon footprint be?

Natural gas (NG) is expected to provide a substantial portion of electricity generation in many jurisdictions for the foreseeable future. Post-combustion carbon capture and storage (CCS) effectively abates direct CO2 emissions; however, indirect NG supply chain emissions in most jurisdictions are incompatible with climate change mitigation goals. This life cycle assessment evaluates specific opportunities to reduce the carbon footprint of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generation with CCS using existing low-emission NG production practices, technologies, and processes combined with emerging CCS techniques to achieve high CO2 capture rates and mitigate startup emissions. We find baseload life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity ranges from 22-62 kgCO2e/MWh for 95-98.5% CO2 capture – within the range of published estimates for wind and photovoltaic power and considerably below prior estimates of CCGT with CCS. We also show how interim solvent storage can effectively mitigate emissions from CCGT start/stop cycles. This work highlights the importance of mitigating both CO2 and methane emissions from NG supply chains and proposes a more nuanced discussion regarding the potential contribution of NG to future energy supply.