Does data drive campaign decision-making? Theorizing campaign practice and the future of election campaigns

Modern election campaigning is often described as “data-driven,” but there are signs that data may not always inform decision-making. This article focuses on the decision-making component of campaigns and provides a new theorisation of this previously neglected component of data-driven campaigns. Arguing that decision-making is affected by a range of contextual, agential and organizational factors, I call for qualitative analysis of campaign practice that is needed to understand how decisions are made. Applying this theoretical account, I consider the likely future of election campaigning, reflecting particularly on the potential for automation. Specifically, I identify where automation is likely to emerge and conclude that rote-like decision-making is unlikely to entirely define the practices of future campaigns. Collectively this article offers new theoretical insight into an overlooked aspect of modern campaigning - decision-making - and provides offers a foundation for more accurate predictions about the future of campaigns.