Potter, E.R. orcid.org/0000-0001-5273-1292, Fyffe, C.L. orcid.org/0000-0001-6950-3501, Orr, A. et al. (13 more authors) (2023) A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6 (1). 96. ISSN: 2397-3722
Abstract
Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.
Metadata
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Authors/Creators: |
|
| Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2023. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Keywords: | Climate and Earth system modelling; Cryospheric science; Hydrology; Projection and prediction |
| Dates: |
|
| Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
| Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > School of Geography and Planning |
| Date Deposited: | 18 Dec 2025 15:14 |
| Last Modified: | 19 Dec 2025 14:58 |
| Status: | Published |
| Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
| Refereed: | Yes |
| Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41612-023-00409-z |
| Related URLs: | |
| Sustainable Development Goals: | |
| Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:235709 |
Download
Filename: s41612-023-00409-z.pdf
Licence: CC-BY 4.0


CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)