The Split:Analysing contest design in the Scottish Premier League

This paper examines whether the policy to split the Scottish Premier League (SPL) into two after 33 games for post-season play generated negative externalities. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design, it tests whether the policy reduced attendance for teams finishing in the lower half of the standings. The analysis uses data from 23 seasons (2000/01 to 2023/24, excluding pandemic-impacted seasons) in which the league has operated under this structure. The results show that teams just below The Split experience lower attendances compared to those just above, driven by the lost opportunity to play against the “top" teams such as Celtic and Rangers. This implies the new structure harmed a subset of clubs. Furthermore, this work highlights how large market teams subsidise smaller teams in sports leagues.