Shi, Y. orcid.org/0000-0002-6111-5085, Heald, C.L. and Val Martin, M. orcid.org/0000-0001-9715-0504 (2025) Future anthropogenic land use change impacts on carbonaceous aerosol and implications for climate and air quality. Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (6). e2024GL110962. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Future anthropogenic land use change (LUC) may alter atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol (black carbon and organic aerosol) burden by perturbing biogenic and fire emissions. However, there has been little investigation of this effect. We examine the global evolution of future carbonaceous aerosol under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projected reforestation and deforestation scenarios using the CESM2 model from present-day to 2100. Compared to present-day, the change in future biogenic volatile organic compounds emission follows changes in forest coverage, while fire emissions decrease in both projections, driven by trends in deforestation fires. The associated carbonaceous aerosol burden change produces moderate aerosol direct radiative forcing (−0.021 to +0.034 W/m2) and modest mean reduction in PM2.5 exposure (−0.11 μg/m3 to −0.23 μg/m3) in both scenarios. We find that future anthropogenic LUC may be more important in determining atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol burden than direct anthropogenic emissions, highlighting the importance of further constraining the impact of LUC.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. |
Keywords: | anthropogenic land use change; carbonaceous aerosol; fire; biogenic VOC; organic aerosol |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 24 Mar 2025 16:39 |
Last Modified: | 24 Mar 2025 16:39 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2024gl110962 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:224780 |