Ongoing intensification of anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone during post-El Niño summer with achieved carbon neutrality

Abstract

Analysis of a suite of global climate model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, our results demonstrate a progressive strengthening of the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) with rising CO2 concentrations, a trend that persists as CO2 declines, followed by gradual recovery without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The overshoot of the WNPAC in the CO2 RD phase is highly correlated with the enhanced anomalous Maritime Continent (MC) convection, which influences WNPAC through reinforced Kelvin wave response or local Hadley circulation adjustment. This enhanced convection is attributed to increased Indo-Pacific zonal SST gradient associated with strengthened MC warming and accelerated decay of El Niño in the Central Pacific, ultimately linked to climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern-related air-sea processes. The overshoot of the WNPAC during the CO2 RD phase may exacerbate flood and high temperature risks in densely populated East Asia.

Metadata

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Zhang, W. Tao, W. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4629-576X Huang, G. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8692-7856 Hu, K. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9988-5747 Qu, X. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2674-0472 Wang, Y. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1527-5413 Tang, H. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2924-0126 Zhang, S.
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Keywords:	Atmospheric dynamics; Projection and prediction
Dates:	Published: 20 December 2024 Published (online): 20 December 2024 Accepted: 4 December 2024
Institution:	The University of Sheffield
Academic Units:	The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > School of Geography and Planning
Depositing User:	Symplectic Sheffield
Date Deposited:	09 Jan 2025 15:34
Last Modified:	09 Jan 2025 15:36
Status:	Published
Publisher:	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Refereed:	Yes
Identification Number:	10.1038/s41612-024-00871-3
Related URLs:	Author Dataset
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:221266