A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion

Abstract

Scientific testing including stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) and trace element analysis (TEA) is critical for establishing plant origin, tackling deforestation and enforcing economic sanctions. Yet methods combining SIRA and TEA into robust models for origin verification and determination are lacking. Here we report a (1) large Eastern European timber reference database (Betula, Fagus, Pinus, Quercus) tailored to sanctioned products following the Ukraine invasion; (2) statistical test to verify samples against a claimed origin; (3) probabilistic model of SIRA, TEA and genus distribution data, using Gaussian processes, to determine timber harvest location. Our verification method rejects 40–60% of simulated false claims, depending on the spatial scale of the claim, and maintains a low probability of rejecting correct origin claims. Our determination method predicts harvest location within 180 to 230 km of true location. Our results showcase the power of combining data types with probabilistic modelling to identify and scrutinize timber harvest location claims.

Metadata

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Mortier, T. Truszkowski, J. Norman, M. Boner, M. Buliga, B. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3981-4613 Chater, C. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2058-2020 Jennings, H. Saunders, J. Sibley, R. Antonelli, A. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1842-9297 Waegeman, W. Deklerck, V. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4880-5943
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	© 2024 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Keywords:	Conservation biology; Forestry; Socioeconomic scenarios; Stable isotope analysis
Dates:	Published: March 2024 Published (online): 11 March 2024 Accepted: 6 February 2024 Submitted: 30 October 2023
Institution:	The University of Sheffield
Academic Units:	The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield)
Depositing User:	Symplectic Sheffield
Date Deposited:	25 Mar 2024 17:06
Last Modified:	25 Mar 2024 17:06
Status:	Published
Publisher:	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Refereed:	Yes
Identification Number:	10.1038/s41477-024-01648-5
Related URLs:	PubMed URL Software or Code
Sustainable Development Goals:
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:210878

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A framework for tracing timber following the Ukraine invasion

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