A dynamical model of equatorial magnetosonic waves in the inner magnetosphere: a machine learning approach

Equatorial magnetosonic waves (EMS), together with chorus and plasmaspheric hiss, play key roles in the dynamics of energetic electron fluxes in the magnetosphere. Numerical models, developed following a first principles approach, that are used to study the evolution of high energy electron fluxes are mainly based on quasilinear diffusion. The application of such numerical codes requires statistical models for the distribution of key magnetospheric wave modes to estimate the appropriate diffusion coefficients. These waves are generally statistically modeled as a function of spatial location and geomagnetic indices (e.g., AE, Kp, or Dst). This study presents a novel dynamic spatiotemporal model for EMS wave amplitude, developed using the Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average eXogenous machine learning approach. The EMS wave amplitude, measured by the Van Allen Probes, are modeled using the time lags of the solar wind and geomagnetic indices as inputs as well as the location at which the measurement is made. The resulting model performance is assessed on a separate Van Allen Probes data set, where the prediction efficiency was found to be 34.0% and the correlation coefficient was 56.9%. With more training and validation data the performance metrics could potentially be improved, however, it is also possible that the EMS wave distribution is affected by stochastic factors and the performance metrics obtained for this model are close to the potential maximum.