Carroll, MJ, Heinemeyer, A, Pearce-Higgins, JW et al. (5 more authors) (2015) Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change. Nature Communications, 6. 7851.
Abstract
Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardising the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–80 We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature, topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration, desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2015 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Earth Surface Science Institute (ESSI) (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 23 Jul 2015 11:07 |
Last Modified: | 23 Jun 2023 21:49 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8851 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/ncomms8851 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:87343 |