Wadud, Z (2014) Cycling in a changed climate. Journal of Transport Geography, 35. 12 - 20. ISSN 0966-6923
Abstract
The use of bicycle is substantially affected by the weather patterns, which is expected to change in the future as a result of climate change. It is therefore important to understand the resulting potential changes in bicycle flows in order to accommodate adaptation planning for cycling. We propose a framework to model the changes in bicycle flow in London by developing a negative binomial count-data model and by incorporating future projected weather data from downscaled global climate models, a first such approach in this area. High temporal resolution (hourly) of our model allows us to decipher changes not only on an annual basis, but also on a seasonal and daily basis. We find that there will be a modest 0.5% increase in the average annual hourly bicycle flows in London's network due to a changed climate. The increase is primarily driven by a higher temperature due to a changed climate, although the increase is tempered due to a higher rainfall. The annual average masks the differences of impacts between seasons though - bicycle flows are expected to increase during the summer and winter months (by 1.6%), decrease during the spring (by 2%) and remain nearly unchanged during the autumn. Leisure cycling will be more affected by a changed climate, with an increase of around 7% during the weekend and holiday cycle flows in the summer months.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2014, Elsevier. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Journal of Transport Geography. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Bicycle flow; effects of weather; climate change impacts; climate change adaptation; count data model |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Chemical & Process Engineering (Leeds) > Energy Research Institute (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 04 Jun 2014 09:54 |
Last Modified: | 29 Mar 2018 01:28 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.01.001 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.01.001 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:78976 |