Azaele, S, Maritan, A, Bertuzzo, E et al. (2 more authors) (2010) Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics. Physical Review E: Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, 81 (5). 051901. - . ISSN 1539-3755
Abstract
We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | (c) 2010, owner. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy |
Keywords: | Infectious disease; global climate; endemic period; outbreaks; duration; models |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Mathematics (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 21 May 2014 10:06 |
Last Modified: | 19 Jan 2018 13:21 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.81.051901 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Physical Society |
Identification Number: | 10.1103/PhysRevE.81.051901 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:78947 |