Asseng, S, Ewert, F, Rosenzweig, C et al. (48 more authors) (2013) Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3 (9). 827 - 832. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO 2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO 2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2013,Nature Publishing Group. This is an author produced version of a paper published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 18 Mar 2014 12:22 |
Last Modified: | 15 Sep 2014 01:53 |
Published Version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/nclimate1916 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:77939 |
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