This study focused on time series analysis of the inflation rate in Nigeria from 1992 to 2020. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used in fitting the data sets and model (1,1,5) indicates the best optimal model for the data sets. The results of the study reveal that inflation in Nigeria is likely to decline based on the forecasted data. In order to address the problem of inflation in Nigeria, three main policy prescriptions such as proper monetary management, consideration of the supply-side policies such as Privatization, deregulation, unemployment; price instability; high importation and unfavourable balance of payment equilibrium, which negatively affect the level of economy growth and development have been suggested and are envisioned to assist policy makers in stabilizing the Nigerian economy. This paper forecasted a drop in inflation, if all the aforementioned parameters are kept in check. The ARIMA model used in fitting this economics data serves as one of the best model in describing economic data and therefore recommend the use of ARIMA econometric tools to government agents and all other stakeholders in charge of monetary management of Nigeria economy for proper prediction and forecast of the economy status at every point in time, as this will enhance proactive economic planning and implementation.it also recommends the use of the model for addressing other economic indicators which might have negative effect on economic growth and development.
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)