Place-based inequalities in children’s safeguarding referrals: A multilevel analysis of trends across English local authorities, 2013/14–2021/22

Referral to children’s social care is a key early step in the response to child maltreatment. While national data show rising referral rates, little is known about how local governance structures and local variation in referral practices shape geographic inequalities in access to early safeguarding. This is important as referral sources may reflect different institutional routes into statutory services, and shifts in the referral mix may signal changing opportunities for earlier identification and preventative engagement.

Using longitudinal data from the UK’s Department for Education (2013/14–2021/22), we applied multilevel growth models to examine spatial and institutional variation in referral patterns across English local authorities (LAs). We analysed trends by referral source (police, schools, health services, and LA services), assessed correlations between sources, and compared LAs with their statistical neighbours.

Referral rates increased over time, particularly those originating from police. Substantial, source-specific variation between LAs indicates divergent referral trends and potentially inequitable access to early intervention. These findings highlight place-based inequalities in referrals over time that may be related to both organisational structures and geographic context.

These trends may reflect underlying misalignments between referral pathways and service configuration, with implications for how local systems anticipate and respond to child welfare concerns. Understanding how referral trends vary by place and source can inform more equitable approaches to safeguarding, commissioning, and early intervention policy.