Probabilistic analysis of near-field blast loads considering fireball surface instabilities and stochastic detonator location

High speed video analysis of near-field explosive detonations displays distinct stages of emergent hydrodynamic instabilities in the fireball/shock-air interface. Typically, beyond 10 charge radii, the instabilities experienced large growths giving rise to more chaotic behaviour of the interface and thus an increasing uncertainty in surface velocity. These surface instabilities are suggested as the primary cause of blast parameter variability in the near-field. However, as a deterministic tool, numerical simulation of the detonation process and subsequent blast wave propagation is not able to replicate the stochastic nature of fireball surface instabilities and hence near-field blast parameter variability. Therefore, it is necessary to develop new methods to simulate and characterise the stochastic features of the fireball/shock-air interface. This paper proposes an algorithm to generate an explosive charge element with random shape in finite element model in order to simulate irregularities in the fireball/shock-air interface, and therefore produce variabilities comparable to those from direct observation. The effect of chaotic fireball/shock-air interface on near-field loading is explored through a large number of numerical simulations in order to investigate the statistical distribution of parameters including peak overpressure and impulse. Subsequently, the effect of stochastic detonator location is explored in a similar manner. A computational procedure based on the Monte Carlo Method is proposed to establish a probabilistic model of near-field blast loads, termed PSL-Blast. The reliability of design blast loads calculated using the UFC 3-340-02 design manual is then estimated using PSL-Blast, which suggests that reliability decreases with decreasing scaled distance. Finally, reliability-based safety factors of blast loads are calculated based on different blast settings.