Cerini, F. orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-1239, Jackson, J. orcid.org/0000-0002-4563-2840, O'Brien, D. orcid.org/0000-0002-3420-5210 et al. (2 more authors) (2025) Multivariate signals of population collapse in a high‐throughput ecological experiment. Ecology, 106 (9). e70197. ISSN: 0012-9658
Abstract
Anticipating population declines is a crucial goal of conservation ecology. Recent conceptual work suggests that populations facing growing stressors should exhibit sequential shifts in behavior, morphology, and abundance before declining to extinction. However, the lack of high-resolution, multidimensional data has hindered empirical validation of this conceptual work. Using an autonomously monitored, high-throughput experimental system, we generated individual-based data on populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum forced to collapse due to increasingly stressful conditions. The gradual introduction of a pollutant elicited the predictable sequence of responses—declines in movement speed, followed by declines in body length, emergence of early warning signals of collapse, and finally, abundance declines. Conversely, a press disturbance generated by the introduction of predators did not induce this sequence. The time between the first detectable trait changes and population collapse depended on the statistical approach used, but the sequence remained consistent. Using general additive models, detectable behavioral signals in the polluted populations occurred one generation before abundance-based early warning signals were detectable, and two generations before abundance decline. We highlight that multivariate monitoring, particularly individual-based metrics, is crucial for forecasting population declines.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2025 The Author(s). Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Keywords: | behavior; conservation; early warning signals; experiment; extinction; morphology; multidimensional monitoring; Paramecium; population collapse |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 23 Sep 2025 15:38 |
Last Modified: | 23 Sep 2025 15:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1002/ecy.70197 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:232056 |