Hidayat, A.M., Efendi, U., Virgianto, R.H. et al. (1 more author) (2021) Examining optimum prediction time of rainfall dynamics based on chaotic perspective at different temporal scales: a case study in Bojonegoro, Indonesia. In: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2nd International Conference on Tropical Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, 23-25 Mar 2021, Jakarta, Indonesia. IOP Publishing. ISSN: 1755-1307. EISSN: 1755-1315.
Abstract
As the driving force of the hydrological system, rain has severe impact when dealing with petroleum mining activities, especially in protecting assets and safety. Rainfall has high variability, both spatial and temporal (chaotic data). Due to this reason, ones can only create long-range prediction using the stochastic method. Here we use the Lyapunov exponent to analyze the nonlinear pattern of rainfall dynamics. This method is useful for identifying chaotic deportment in rainfall data. This study uses rainfall data for six years obtained from one of the largest petroleum mining sites in Bojonegoro, Indonesia. Rainfall dynamics have been analyzed on three different time scales, namely daily data, 5-day, and 10-day. The time delay (τ) was obtained by using the Average Mutual Information (AMI) method for the three-rainfall series (3, 2, 3, respectively). The observed rainfall data in Bojonegoro show signs of chaos as the finite correlation dimensions (m) attain values about 4 for all time scales. The maximum Lyapunov exponent λmax for each of three-rainfall series in Bojonegoro is 0.111, 0.057, 0.062, respectively. These values were analyzed to find the optimum prediction time of rainfall occurrence to perform better forecasting. The result shows that the optimum range of prediction time for daily, 5-day, and 10-day have 9, 18, and 16 times longer than their temporal scale.
Metadata
Item Type: | Proceedings Paper |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This item is protected by copyright. Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. |
Keywords: | rainfall, chaotic, optimum time, Lyapunov exponent |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 23 Sep 2025 13:23 |
Last Modified: | 23 Sep 2025 13:23 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | IOP Publishing |
Identification Number: | 10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012024 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:232034 |
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