Multilevel analysis of ethnic clustering across local schools: Exploring group dynamics

This study examines ethnic clustering patterns across English secondary schools from 2010 to 2018 using National Pupil Database data and multilevel modelling. Despite concerns about increased segregation following educational reforms, findings reveal a general decline in ethnic concentration across all groups during this period. Analysis of 150 local authorities shows significant variation in clustering patterns, with Bangladeshi and Other White students exhibiting the highest between-authority variation. Multilevel models demonstrate that higher proportions of same-ethnic populations in local areas correlate with more dispersed school distributions for most groups, a counterintuitive finding suggesting complex dynamics of white avoidance and ethnic community strategies for navigating educational markets. Faith schools consistently increase ethnic concentration across all groups, while academies show mixed effects by ethnicity. Case studies of Birmingham and London reveal concerning patterns of institutional segregation, with different ethnic groups concentrated in different school types, potentially limiting meaningful intergroup contact. While declining clustering suggests improved opportunities for intergroup contact, persistent institutional variations raise questions about whether school choice policies inadvertently create parallel educational systems that undermine social cohesion. The study contributes to international debates about balancing parental choice with integration objectives, offering lessons for diverse democracies grappling with similar challenges in an era of increasing ethnic diversity and political tensions around immigration.