Deciphering probabilistic species interaction networks

Representing species interactions probabilistically as opposed to deterministically conveys uncertainties in our knowledge of interactions. The sources of uncertainty captured by interaction probabilities depend on the method used to evaluate them: uncertainty of predictive models, subjective assessment of experts, or empirical measurement of interaction spatiotemporal variability. However, guidelines for the estimation and documentation of probabilistic interaction data are lacking. This is concerning because our understanding of interaction probabilities depend on their sometimes elusive definition and uncertainty sources. We review how probabilistic interactions are defined at different spatial scales. These definitions are based on the distinction between the realisation of an interaction at a specific time and space (local networks) and its biological or ecological feasibility (metaweb). Using host–parasite interactions in Europe, we illustrate how these two network representations differ in their statistical properties, specifically: how local networks and metawebs differ in their spatial and temporal scaling of interactions. We present two approaches to inferring binary interactions from probabilistic ones that account for these differences and show that systematic biases arise when directly inferring local networks from metawebs. Our results underscore the importance of more rigorous descriptions of probabilistic species interactions that specify their conditional variables and uncertainty sources.