Burnett, R. orcid.org/0000-0001-6772-4239, Cork, M. orcid.org/0000-0003-4428-2428, Fann, N. et al. (2 more authors) (2024) Adapting non-parametric spline representations of outdoor air pollution health effects associations for use in public health benefits assessment. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, 17 (6). pp. 1295-1305. ISSN 1873-9318
Abstract
The magnitude and shape of the association between outdoor air pollution concentrations and health need to be characterized in order to estimate public health benefits from proposed mitigation strategies. Specialized parametric functions have been proposed for this characterization. However, non-parametric spline models offer more flexibility, less bias, and predictive power, in describing these associations and are thus preferred over relatively simple parametric formulations. Unrestricted spline representations are often reported but many are not suitable for benefits analysis due to their erratic concentration-response behavior and are usually not presented in a format consistent with the requirements necessary to conduct a benefits analysis. We propose a method to adapt non-parametric spline representations of concentration-response associations that are suitable for public health benefits analysis by transforming spline predictions and its uncertainty over the study exposure range to a new spline formulation that is both monotonically increasing and restricted to concentration-response patterns suitable for use in health benefits assessment. We selected two examples of the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter and mortality in Canada and the USA that displayed spline fits that were neither monotonically increasing nor suitable, we suggest, for benefits analysis. We suggest our model is suitable for benefits analysis and conduct such analyses for both Canada and the USA, comparing benefits estimates to traditional models. Finally, we provide guidance on how to report spline fitting results such they can be used either in benefits analysis directly, or to fit our new model.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © Crown 2024. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Air pollution health effects; concentration-response models |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Medicine and Population Health |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 31 Jan 2025 09:34 |
Last Modified: | 31 Jan 2025 09:34 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11869-024-01507-4 |
Related URLs: | |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:222405 |