Ward, A.I. orcid.org/0000-0002-3305-3323, Richardson, S., Macarthur, R. et al. (1 more author) (2020) Using and communicating uncertainty for the effective control of invasive non‐native species. Mammal Review, 50 (2). pp. 211-220. ISSN 0305-1838
Abstract
Estimates of quantities needed to plan invasive species control, such as population size, are always uncertain; this is an issue that can become a problem when mishandled in ecological science and its communication. The complexities of incorporating uncertainty into sophisticated decision-support tools may be a barrier to their use by decision makers, leading to decisions being made without due regard to uncertainty and risking misplaced certainty of predicted outcomes. We summarise ways in which uncertainty has been incorporated into and used to advise decisions on the management of invasive non-native species and other problem species, and offer a simple conceptual model for accommodating and using uncertainty at the planning stage. We also demonstrate how frequently uncertainty has been misused and miscommunicated in the wildlife management literature. We contend that uncertainty in estimates of natural quantities must be acknowledged, can inform decisions and can be made to derive decisions, and should not be ignored if invasive species policy is to be delivered effectively. Uncertainty must be communicated thoroughly and correctly by scientists if decision makers are to understand its consequences for planning and resourcing control programmes.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020 The Mammal Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an author produced version of an article accepted for publication in Mammal Review. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | confidence interval; decision-making; error; invasive non-native mammals; probability; wildlife management |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Biological Sciences (Leeds) > School of Biology (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 20 Jan 2025 16:51 |
Last Modified: | 20 Jan 2025 16:51 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/mam.12188 |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:221957 |