The iterative development and refinement of health psychology theories through formal, dynamical systems modelling: a scoping review and initial expert-derived ‘best practice’ recommendations

This scoping review aimed to synthesise methodological steps taken by researchers in the development of formal, dynamical systems models of health psychology theories. We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, the ACM Digital Library and IEEE Xplore in July 2023. We included studies of any design providing that they reported on the development or refinement of a formal, dynamical systems model unfolding at the within-person level, with no restrictions on population or setting. A narrative synthesis with frequency analyses was conducted. A total of 17 modelling projects reported across 29 studies were included. Formal modelling efforts have largely been concentrated to a small number of interdisciplinary teams in the United States (79.3%). The models aimed to better understand dynamic processes (69.0%) or inform the development of adaptive interventions (31.0%). Models typically aimed to formalise the Social Cognitive Theory (31.0%) or the Self-Regulation Theory (17.2%) and varied in complexity (range: 3–30 model components). Only 3.4% of studies reported involving stakeholders in the modelling process and 10.3% drew on Open Science practices. We conclude by proposing an initial set of expert-derived ‘best practice’ recommendations. Formal, dynamical systems modelling is poised to help health psychologists develop and refine theories, ultimately leading to more potent interventions.