Visser, M.E. orcid.org/0000-0002-1456-1939, Lindner, M. orcid.org/0000-0003-2931-265X, Gienapp, P. et al. (2 more authors) (2021) Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits (Parus major). Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 288 (1963). 20211337. ISSN 0962-8452
Abstract
Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (Parus major), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Author(s). This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | climate change; great tit; phenology; seasonal timing; selection; Animals; Climate Change; Global Warming; Passeriformes; Reproduction; Seasons; Temperature |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Science (Sheffield) > School of Biosciences (Sheffield) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 24 Sep 2024 13:47 |
Last Modified: | 24 Sep 2024 13:48 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | The Royal Society |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1098/rspb.2021.1337 |
Related URLs: | |
Sustainable Development Goals: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:217583 |