Is solar heating an appropriate choice in rural areas of northern China? Evidence from numerical simulation and life cycle assessment

Solar heating is generally regarded as a clean and low-carbon heating method, while its high initial investment hinders its promotion in economically underdeveloped areas. With the implementation of the clean heating policy and the proposal of the carbon neutralization target, rural bulk coal heating in northern China is restricted. The Chinese government proposes to widely adopt solar heating to meet the heating demands of rural residents. In this research, the application of solar assisted heat pump systems in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and its surrounding areas in China is numerically simulated. A new evaluation method under the same initial investment constraint is proposed to verify its benefits throughout the entire life cycle. The results indicate that although solar thermal heating has the lowest environmental impact and carbon emissions among various heating methods, it is not the best solution to rural clean heating. The reason is that equal investment in other projects can bring much more benefits, such as roof solar photovoltaic. In contrast to the air source heat pump and photovoltaic panel scheme with the same initial investment, solar heating has obvious negative environmental impact, 53.3 % higher economic cost, 35.9 tons more carbon emissions, and 105.9 % higher roof area occupation. The sensitivity analysis of solar fraction, geographical coordinates, and energy price also supports the above findings. The recommendation is proposed to promote air source heat pumps or solar photovoltaic, rather than solar thermal collectors, so as to reduce the cost of rural clean heating and carbon emission reduction.