An in silico modelling approach to predict hemodynamic outcomes in diabetic and hypertensive kidney disease

Early diagnosis of kidney disease remains an unmet clinical challenge, preventing timely and effective intervention. Diabetes and hypertension are two main causes of kidney disease, can often appear together, and can only be distinguished by invasive biopsy. In this study, we developed a modelling approach to simulate blood velocity, volumetric flow rate, and pressure wave propagation in arterial networks of ageing, diabetic, and hypertensive virtual populations. The model was validated by comparing our predictions for pressure, volumetric flow rate and waveform-derived indexes with in vivo data on ageing populations from the literature. The model simulated the effects of kidney disease, and was calibrated to align quantitatively with in vivo data on diabetic and hypertensive nephropathy from the literature. Our study identified some potential biomarkers extracted from renal blood flow rate and flow pulsatility. For typical patient age groups, resistive index values were 0.69 (SD 0.05) and 0.74 (SD 0.02) in the early and severe stages of diabetic nephropathy, respectively. Similar trends were observed in the same stages of hypertensive nephropathy, with a range from 0.65 (SD 0.07) to 0.73 (SD 0.05), respectively. Mean renal blood flow rate through a single diseased kidney ranged from 329 (SD 40, early) to 317 (SD 38, severe) ml/min in diabetic nephropathy and 443 (SD 54, early) to 388 (SD 47, severe) ml/min in hypertensive nephropathy, showing potential as a biomarker for early diagnosis of kidney disease. This modelling approach demonstrated its potential application in informing biomarker identification and facilitating the setup of clinical trials.