Wilson, T., Grossman, I., Alexander, M. et al. (2 more authors) (2022) Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs. Population Research and Policy Review, 41. pp. 865-898. ISSN 0167-5923
Abstract
Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major investment decisions. Yet, the toolbox of small area population forecasting methods and techniques is modest relative to that for national and large subnational regional forecasting. In this paper, we assess the current state of small area population forecasting, and suggest areas for further research. The paper provides a review of the literature on small area population forecasting methods published over the period 2001–2020. The key themes covered by the review are extrapolative and comparative methods, simplified cohort-component methods, model averaging and combining, incorporating socioeconomic variables and spatial relationships, ‘downscaling’ and disaggregation approaches, linking population with housing, estimating and projecting small area component input data, microsimulation, machine learning, and forecast uncertainty. Several avenues for further research are then suggested, including more work on model averaging and combining, developing new forecasting methods for situations which current models cannot handle, quantifying uncertainty, exploring methodologies such as machine learning and spatial statistics, creating user-friendly tools for practitioners, and understanding more about how forecasts are used.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2021. This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use (https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/policies/accepted-manuscript-terms), but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-021-09671-6. |
Keywords: | Population forecasts, Small area, Literature review, Research needs |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 05 Jul 2024 09:30 |
Last Modified: | 17 Jul 2024 14:13 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer |
Identification Number: | 10.1007/s11113-021-09671-6 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:214449 |