Nieto, Jaime, Brockway, Paul E., Sakai, Marco orcid.org/0000-0002-9337-5148 et al. (1 more author) (2024) Assessing the energy and socio-macroeconomic impacts of the EV transition:A UK case study 2020–2050. Applied Energy. 123367. ISSN 1872-9118
Abstract
The electric vehicle (EV) transition is underway in the UK and many other countries worldwide, switching from fossil fuel powered internal combustion engine (ICE) road transport to EVs that can be powered by renewable electricity. Whilst the projected energy and carbon reduction impacts are well understood, we have only a partial view of the potential socio-macroeconomic effects of the EV transition, i.e. the impacts on GDP and jobs. Common energy-economy models feature only limited energy-economy integration, and only assign a small role for energy in economic growth. Thus whilst economic changes such as increases to investment can feed into macroeconomic impact assessment, the impacts of the energy system changes are potentially underestimated. In response, we use a novel macro-econometric model – MARCO-UK – to conduct a whole system analysis with two main scenarios: an ICE baseline (with no EV transition) and 100% EV transition scenario to 2050. We investigate the effects of the scenarios on the UK's energy system (efficiency, energy services, rebound) and economic system (employment, GDP, debt), under different conditions of investment, rebound and electricity prices. We find the most significant impacts stem from energy system changes, with annual economic growth rising from 1.71%/year (baseline) to 2.25%/year in the main EV scenario. In contrast, the impacts from economic investment changes are much lower in scale. Therefore, the socio-macroeconomic benefits of the EV transition may be underestimated. We also find that overall long-term economy-wide rebound in our central EV scenario is 76%, which means the energy savings from the EV transition may be less than hoped. Overall, our analysis identifies potential trade-offs regarding the labour market, levels of indebtedness, energy rebound and associated carbon emissions that should be taken into consideration.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | Funding Information: This research was largely funded by support from UK Research and Innovation, primarily from the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, grant reference number EP/R 035288/1. Jaime Nieto's time was also part-funded by support from the Ministry of Science, Innovation and University (Government of Spain) on the Margarita Salas grant modality. Paul Brockway's time was also funded by the UK Research Council under EPSRC Fellowship award EP/R024254/1. We would like to thank Imogen Stevens for her help to obtain many of the updated input datasets required for the construction of the MARCO_UK version 2 model. Funding Information: This research was largely funded by support from UK Research and Innovation , primarily from the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions, grant reference number EP/R 035288/1. Jaime Nieto's time was also part-funded by support from the Ministry of Science, Innovation and University (Government of Spain) on the Margarita Salas grant modality. Paul Brockway's time was also part-funded by the UK Research and Innovation under EPSRC Fellowship award EP/R024254/1 . Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors |
Keywords: | Ecological macroeconomics,Electric vehicles,Energy,Energy-economy model,Rebound effect,Transitions,Whole systems analysis |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of York |
Academic Units: | The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Environment and Geography (York) The University of York > Faculty of Sciences (York) > Stockholm Environment Institute at York (York) |
Depositing User: | Pure (York) |
Date Deposited: | 27 Jun 2024 12:10 |
Last Modified: | 04 Mar 2025 00:09 |
Published Version: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123367 |
Status: | Published |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123367 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:214038 |
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Description: Assessing the energy and socio-macroeconomic impacts of the EV transition: A UK case study 2020–2050
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