Moglia, V., Johnson, O., de Kamps, M. et al. (2 more authors) (2025) Artificial intelligence methods applied to longitudinal health records for prediction of cancer: A scoping review. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 25 (1). ISSN 1471-2288
Abstract
Background
Early detection and diagnosis of cancer are vital to improving outcomes for patients. Artificial intelligence (AI) models have shown promise in the early detection and diagnosis of cancer, but there is limited evidence on methods that fully exploit the longitudinal data stored within electronic health records (EHRs). This review aims to summarise methods currently utilised for prediction of cancer from longitudinal data and provides recommendations on how such models should be developed.
Methods
The review was conducted following PRISMA-ScR guidance. Six databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, PubMed and SCOPUS) were searched for relevant records published before 2/2/2024. Search terms related to the concepts “artificial intelligence”, “prediction”, “health records”, “longitudinal”, and “cancer”. Data were extracted relating to several areas of the articles: (1) publication details, (2) study characteristics, (3) input data, (4) model characteristics, (4) reproducibility, and (5) quality assessment using the PROBAST tool. Models were evaluated against a framework for terminology relating to reporting of cancer detection and risk prediction models.
Results
Of 653 records screened, 33 were included in the review; 10 predicted risk of cancer, 18 performed either cancer detection or early detection, 4 predicted recurrence, and 1 predicted metastasis. The most common cancers predicted in the studies were colorectal (n = 9) and pancreatic cancer (n = 9). 16 studies used feature engineering to represent temporal data, with the most common features representing trends. 18 used deep learning models which take a direct sequential input, most commonly recurrent neural networks, but also including convolutional neural networks and transformers. Prediction windows and lead times varied greatly between studies, even for models predicting the same cancer. High risk of bias was found in 90% of the studies. This risk was often introduced due to inappropriate study design (n = 26) and sample size (n = 26).
Conclusion
This review highlights the breadth of approaches to cancer prediction from longitudinal data. We identify areas where reporting of methods could be improved, particularly regarding where in a patients’ trajectory the model is applied. The review shows opportunities for further work, including comparison of these approaches and their applications in other cancers.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
Keywords: | Machine learning, Health data, Longitudinal data, Cancer, Time-series, Temporal, Artificial intelligence |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Computing (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 28 Feb 2025 14:42 |
Last Modified: | 28 Feb 2025 14:53 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Springer Nature |
Identification Number: | 10.1186/s12874-025-02473-w |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:213600 |