Saffin, L., McKenna, C., Bonnet, R. et al. (1 more author) (2024) Large Uncertainties When Diagnosing the “Eddy Feedback Parameter” and Its Role in the Signal-To-Noise Paradox. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (11). e2024GL108861. ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
A too-weak eddy feedback in models has been proposed to explain the signal-to-noise paradox in seasonal-to-decadal forecasts of the winter Northern Hemisphere. We show that the “eddy feedback parameter” (EFP) used in previous studies is sensitive to sampling and multidecadal variability. When these uncertainties are accounted for, the EFP diagnosed from CMIP6 historical simulations generally falls within the reanalysis uncertainty. We find the EFP is not independent of the sampled North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Within the same dataset, a sample containing larger NAO variability will show a larger EFP, suggesting that the link between eddy feedbacks and the signal-to-noise paradox could be due to sampling effects with the EFP. An alternative measure of eddy feedback, the barotropic energy generation rate, is less sensitive to sampling errors and delineates CMIP6 models that have weak, strong, or unbiased eddy feedbacks, but shows little relation to NAO variability.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2024. The Author(s).This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number EU - European Union 820829 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 15 May 2024 08:49 |
Last Modified: | 11 Sep 2024 14:58 |
Published Version: | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/1... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2024GL108861 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:212529 |