Kretzschmar, M.E., Ashby, B., Fearon, E. et al. (11 more authors) (2022) Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics. Epidemics, 38. 100546. ISSN 1755-4365
Abstract
Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. |
Keywords: | Mathematical models; Pandemics; Pharmaceutical interventions; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Policy support |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Mathematics (Leeds) > Applied Mathematics (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 29 Jan 2024 15:11 |
Last Modified: | 29 Jan 2024 15:12 |
Published Version: | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Elsevier BV |
Identification Number: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100546 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:208330 |
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Filename: Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics.pdf
Licence: CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0