Knotters, M., Bokhove, O., Lamb, R. et al. (1 more author) (2024) How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management? Cambridge Prisms: Water, 2. e6. ISSN 2755-1776
Abstract
Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM). We elaborated on the metaphor of uncertainty as a monster. We recommend two strategies to cope with the uncertainty monster to support efficient decision-making in FRM: monster adaptation and monster assimilation. We present three cases to illustrate these strategies. We argue that these strategies benefit from improving the structure and reducing the complexity of decision problems. We discuss ways to involve decision-makers in FRM, and how communication strategies can be responsive to their informational needs.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited. |
Keywords: | flood risk management; decision-making; uncertainty; risk perceptions; storylines |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Mathematics (Leeds) > Applied Mathematics (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 16 Jan 2024 14:23 |
Last Modified: | 22 Mar 2024 10:08 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Cambridge University Press |
Identification Number: | 10.1017/wat.2024.4 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:207639 |
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