Development of children’s number line estimation in primary school: regional and curricular influences

Is the development of number line estimation (NLE) similar across regions? Data from Canada (Quebec, n = 67, Mage = 7.9 years; Manitoba, n = 177, Mage = 7.8 years), Chile (n = 81, Mage = 7.9 years), and Northern Ireland (n = 171, Mage = 7.3 years) were analyzed. Twice, approximately one year apart, students completed a 0–1000 NLE task and other mathematical tasks. Using latent profile analysis, students’ estimates were classified as belonging to either a uniform or variable profile. At Time 1, estimation accuracy differed across regions, but at Time 2, patterns of performance were similar. Regional variations in improvements were related to curricular demands. Moreover, mini meta-analyses of the associations between NLE and other mathematical tasks revealed medium effect sizes. Overall, the NLE task can provide insights into concurrent and longitudinal mathematics achievement, but educational experiences should be considered when comparing performance across regions.