Pina Sánchez, J. orcid.org/0000-0002-9416-6022, Dhami, M. K. and Gosling, J. P. (2024) Which Are the Main Characteristics Determining Sentence Severity? An Empirical Exploration of Shoplifting Offences Using Spike-and-Slab Models. In: Research Handbook of Judicial Politics. Research Handbooks in Law and Politics series . Edward Elgar , Cheltenham , pp. 450-464. ISBN 9781035309313
Abstract
In order to identify the case characteristics considered by judges in their sentencing deliberations, researchers have relied heavily on regression modelling techniques. In most instances, the sample of sentences available is many times larger than the number of case characteristics recorded, providing enough degrees of freedom to estimate the effect of these case characteristics adequately. However, when the number of case characteristics recorded is too large, or the samples are too small, regression models can overfit the data. Here, we demonstrate how, in such settings, Bayesian methods such as spike-and-slab models can be used to select the most consequential case characteristics in a principled and reliable way. The potential of this approach is illustrated using a sample of 2,116 sentences imposed in the magistrates’ courts in England and Wales on shoplifters. For this small sample, we reliably estimated twenty case characteristics predicting custody decisions. This highlights the high degree of discretion afforded to sentencers in England and Wales. We also found that offender-related factors (such as the offender’s previous convictions, and caring responsibilities), appeared to be far more important than characteristics defining the offence (e.g., value of goods stolen or lasting effect of offence on victim). This questions the widely held belief that sentencing in England and Wales is based around the principle of proportionality.
Metadata
Item Type: | Book Section |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | This is a draft chapter/article. The final version is available in Research Handbook on Judicial Politics edited by Michael P. Fix and Matthew D. Montgomery, published in 2024, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781035309320 The material cannot be used for any other purpose without further permission of the publisher, and is for private use only. |
Keywords: | Sentencing; Judicial decision-making; Shoplifting; Magistrates’ court; Bayesian model averaging; Discretion |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Education, Social Sciences and Law (Leeds) > School of Law (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 22 Sep 2023 12:21 |
Last Modified: | 05 Mar 2025 01:13 |
Published Version: | https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/978103... |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Edward Elgar |
Series Name: | Research Handbooks in Law and Politics series |
Identification Number: | 10.4337/9781035309320.00043 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:203484 |