Gatti, L.V., Cunha, C.L., Marani, L. et al. (27 more authors) (2023) Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement. Nature, 621. pp. 318-323. ISSN 0028-0836
Abstract
The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles, deforestation and fire data, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year−1 in 2010–2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year−1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year−1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010–2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019–2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015–2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010–2018 mean and 2019–2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019–2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2023. This is an author produced version of an article published in Nature. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 24 Aug 2023 13:03 |
Last Modified: | 19 Nov 2024 13:46 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41586-023-06390-0 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:202354 |