Expectation-achievement gaps and satisfaction in World Cup football supporters: a quasi-experiment

Research question Football is the world's most popular spectator sport so supporters’ satisfaction and happiness (wellbeing) is of considerable interest. We examined how gaps between supporters’ expectations and teams’ achievements affect supporters’ wellbeing, and how social identity moderates this. Addressing previous methodological limitations, we examined such gaps objectively in a meaningful real-world scenario.

Research methods We conducted a quasi-experiment around the 2018 FIFA World Cup with 278 supporters and 63 control participants, collecting data before, during, and after the championship. We also examined curvilinear effects and the moderating effect of social identity using polynomial regression surface modelling.

Results and findings Supporters’ satisfaction increased when their national team's achievements exceeded expectations, decreased when achievements failed to exceed expectations, and remained stable for a control group. Happiness was unchanged in these conditions, however. Polynomial regression indicated that expectations and achievements explained a substantial 35% of incremental variance in satisfaction, and their three-dimensional curvilinear interaction accounted for a further 6% (a considerable 41% overall). The moderating effect of social identity on this relationship also approached significance.

Implications Increases in achievements increase satisfaction, and disproportionately so for high achievements. However, satisfaction is also increased by lowering expectations, particularly for supporters identifying strongly with their teams. For supporters identifying less strongly, though, moderate expectations increase satisfaction most.