McKenna, CM orcid.org/0000-0002-9677-4582 and Maycock, AC orcid.org/0000-0002-6614-1127
(2021)
Sources of uncertainty in multi-model large ensemble projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation.
Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (14).
e2021GL093258.
ISSN 0094-8276
Abstract
Projections of the winter North Atlantic circulation exhibit large spread. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archives typically provide only a few ensemble members per model, rendering it difficult to quantify reducible model structural uncertainty and irreducible internal variability (IV) in projections. We estimate using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that model structural differences explain two-thirds of the spread in late 21st century (2080–2099) projections of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This estimate is biased by systematic model errors in the forced NAO response and IV. Across the North Atlantic, the NAO explains a substantial fraction of the spread in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) projections due to IV, except in the central North Atlantic. Conversely, the spread in North Atlantic MSLP projections associated with model differences is largely unexplained by the NAO. Therefore, improving understanding of the NAO alone may not constrain the reducible uncertainty in North Atlantic MSLP projections.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) NE/M018199/1 EU - European Union 820829 Leverhulme Trust PLP-2018-278 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 06 Jul 2021 12:53 |
Last Modified: | 21 Oct 2022 09:32 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2021GL093258 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:175928 |