Marincowitz, C. orcid.org/0000-0003-3043-7564, Paton, L., Lecky, F. orcid.org/0000-0001-6806-0921 et al. (1 more author) (2022) Predicting need for hospital admission in patients with traumatic brain injury or skull fractures identified on CT imaging : a machine learning approach. Emergency Medicine Journal, 39 (5). pp. 394-401. ISSN 1472-0205
Abstract
Background: Patients with mild traumatic brain injury on CT scan are routinely admitted for inpatient observation. Only a small proportion of patients require clinical intervention. We recently developed a decision rule using traditional statistical techniques that found neurologically intact patients with isolated simple skull fractures or single bleeds <5 mm with no preinjury antiplatelet or anticoagulant use may be safely discharged from the emergency department. The decision rule achieved a sensitivity of 99.5% (95% CI 98.1% to 99.9%) and specificity of 7.4% (95% CI 6.0% to 9.1%) to clinical deterioration. We aimed to transparently report a machine learning approach to assess if predictive accuracy could be improved.
Methods: We used data from the same retrospective cohort of 1699 initial Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) 13–15 patients with injuries identified by CT who presented to three English Major Trauma Centres between 2010 and 2017 as in our original study. We assessed the ability of machine learning to predict the same composite outcome measure of deterioration (indicating need for hospital admission). Predictive models were built using gradient boosted decision trees which consisted of an ensemble of decision trees to optimise model performance.
Results: The final algorithm reported a mean positive predictive value of 29%, mean negative predictive value of 94%, mean area under the curve (C-statistic) of 0.75, mean sensitivity of 99% and mean specificity of 7%. As with logistic regression, GCS, severity and number of brain injuries were found to be important predictors of deterioration.
Conclusion: We found no clear advantages over the traditional prediction methods, although the models were, effectively, developed using a smaller data set, due to the need to divide it into training, calibration and validation sets. Future research should focus on developing models that provide clear advantages over existing classical techniques in predicting outcomes in this population.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2021 The Author(s). This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in Emergency Medicine Journal. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This version available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. You may not use the material for commercial purposes. |
Keywords: | CT/MRI; head; imaging; research; trauma |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health (Sheffield) > School of Health and Related Research (Sheffield) > ScHARR - Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 22 Apr 2021 11:02 |
Last Modified: | 26 May 2022 12:45 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | BMJ Publishing Group |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1136/emermed-2020-210776 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:173350 |