Chinese Strategy in South Korea

Chinese strategy toward the Republic of Korea (ROK) has not undergone wholesale transformation under Xi’s direction, but it has shown signs of being more assertive. Chinese pressure around the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system was a blunt and coercive instrument. Despite the turbulence over armaments, Beijing has opened up a relatively burgeoning relationship with Seoul, and successive South Korean leaders have expended much energy on cultivating ties with Xi. His signature initiatives—the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)—have received a relatively warm, if somewhat vague, welcome in Seoul. This is in part because South Korean leaders can envision BRI ultimately as a driver for the further enmeshment of North Korea into the region. In many cases, however, the new rhetoric from Chinese leaders and scholars mirrors old intentions, and South Korea will remain a relatively hard target for Chinese influence and intimidation efforts.