Forster, PM orcid.org/0000-0002-6078-0171, Forster, HI, Evans, MJ et al. (11 more authors) (2020) Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19. Nature Climate Change, 10 (10). pp. 913-919. ISSN 1758-678X
Abstract
The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2020, Springer Nature. This is an author produced version of an article published in Nature Climate Change. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Earth and Environment (Leeds) > Inst for Climate & Atmos Science (ICAS) (Leeds) |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 11 Aug 2020 08:55 |
Last Modified: | 07 Feb 2021 01:39 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Nature Research |
Identification Number: | 10.1038/s41558-020-0883-0 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:164227 |