Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Metadata

Item Type:	Article
Authors/Creators:	Sullivan, MJP https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5955-0483 Lewis, SL Affum-Baffoe, K Castilho, C Costa, F Sanchez, AC Ewango, CEN Hubau, W Marimon, B Monteagudo-Mendoza, A Qie, L Sonké, B Martinez, RV Baker, TR Brienen, RJW https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5397-5755 Feldpausch, TR Galbraith, D Gloor, M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9384-6341 Malhi, Y Aiba, S-I Alexiades, MN Almeida, EC de Oliveira, EA Dávila, EÁ Loayza, PA Andrade, A Vieira, SA Aragão, LEOC Araujo-Murakami, A Arets, EJMM Arroyo, L Ashton, P Aymard C., G Baccaro, FB Banin, LF Baraloto, C Camargo, PB Barlow, J Barroso, J Bastin, J-F Batterman, SA Beeckman, H Begne, SK Bennett, AC https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9815-200X Berenguer, E Berry, N Blanc, L Boeckx, P Bogaert, J Bonal, D Bongers, F Bradford, M Brearley, FQ Brncic, T Brown, F Burban, B Camargo, JL Castro, W Céron, C Ribeiro, SC Moscoso, VC Chave, J Chezeaux, E Clark, CJ de Souza, FC Collins, M Comiskey, JA Valverde, FC Medina, MC da Costa, L Dančák, M Dargie, GC Davies, S Cardozo, ND de Haulleville, T de Medeiros, MB del Aguila Pasquel, J Derroire, G Di Fiore, A Doucet, J-L Dourdain, A Droissant, V Duque, LF Ekoungoulou, R Elias, F Erwin, T Esquivel-Muelbert, A Fauset, S Ferreira, J Llampazo, GF Foli, E Ford, A Gilpin, M https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5539-8277 Hall, JS Hamer, KC https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2158-2420 Hamilton, AC Harris, DJ Hart, TB Hédl, R Herault, B Herrera, R Higuchi, N Hladik, A Coronado, EH Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, I Huasco, WH Jeffery, KJ Jimenez-Rojas, E Kalamandeen, M https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5385-7444 Djuikouo, MNK Kearsley, E Umetsu, RK Kho, LK Killeen, T Kitayama, K Klitgaard, B Koch, A Labrière, N Laurance, W Laurance, S Leal, ME Levesley, A Lima, AJN Lisingo, J Lopes, AP Lopez-Gonzalez, G https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0814-8830 Lovejoy, T Lovett, JC https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5839-3770 Lowe, R Magnusson, WE Malumbres-Olarte, J Manzatto, ÂG Marimon Jr., BH Marshall, AR Marthews, T de Almeida Reis, SM Maycock, C Melgaço, K Mendoza, C Metali, F Mihindou, V Milliken, W Mitchard, ETA Morandi, PS Mossman, HL Nagy, L Nascimento, H Neill, D Nilus, R Vargas, PN Palacios, W Camacho, NP Peacock, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1344-4335 Pendry, C Peñuela Mora, MC Pickavance, GC Pipoly, J Pitman, N Playfair, M Poorter, L Poulsen, JR Poulsen, AD Preziosi, R Prieto, A Primack, RB Ramírez-Angulo, H Reitsma, J Réjou-Méchain, M Correa, ZR de Sousa, TR Bayona, LR Roopsind, A Rudas, A Rutishauser, E Abu Salim, K Salomão, RP Schietti, J Sheil, D Silva, RC Espejo, JS Valeria, CS Silveira, M Simo-Droissart, M Simon, MF Singh, J Soto Shareva, YC Stahl, C Stropp, J Sukri, R Sunderland, T Svátek, M Swaine, MD Swamy, V Taedoumg, H Talbot, J https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6520-4560 Taplin, J Taylor, D ter Steege, H Terborgh, J Thomas, R Thomas, SC Torres-Lezama, A Umunay, P Gamarra, LV van der Heijden, G van der Hout, P van der Meer, P van Nieuwstadt, M Verbeeck, H Vernimmen, R Vicentini, A Vieira, ICG Torre, EV Vleminckx, J Vos, V Wang, O White, LJT Willcock, S Woods, JT Wortel, V Young, K Zagt, R Zemagho, L Zuidema, PA Zwerts, JA Phillips, OL https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-6168
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information:	© 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on vol. 368 22nd May 2020, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Dates:	Published: 22 May 2020 Published (online): 22 May 2020 Accepted: 5 March 2020
Institution:	The University of Leeds
Academic Units:	The University of Leeds > Faculty of Biological Sciences (Leeds) > School of Biology (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > Institute for Transport Studies (Leeds) > ITS: Sustainable Transport Policy (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > Ecology & Global Change (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Environment (Leeds) > School of Geography (Leeds) > River Basin Processes & Management (Leeds) > SOG: water@leeds
Funding Information:	Funder Grant number Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation Grant 5349
Depositing User:	Symplectic Publications
Date Deposited:	29 May 2020 10:13
Last Modified:	29 May 2020 10:13
Status:	Published
Publisher:	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Identification Number:	10.1126/science.aaw7578
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID):	oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:161243

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Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

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