Boynton, R.J. orcid.org/0000-0003-3473-5403, Amariutei, O.A., Shprits, Y.Y. orcid.org/0000-0002-9625-0834 et al. (1 more author) (2019) The system science development of local time dependent 40 keV electron flux models for geostationary orbit. Space Weather, 17 (6). pp. 894-906. ISSN 1542-7390
Abstract
At Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO), the radiation belt/ring current electron fluxes with energies up to several hundred keV, can vary widely in Magnetic Local Time (MLT). This study aims to develop Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogenous (NARX) models using system science techniques, which account for the spatial variation in MLT. This is difficult for system science techniques, since there is sparse data availability of the electron fluxes at different MLT. To solve this problem the data are binned from GOES 13, 14, and 15 by MLT, and a separate NARX model is deduced for each bin using solar wind variables as the inputs to the model. These models are then conjugated into one spatiotemporal forecast. The model performance statistics for each model varies in MLT with a Prediction Efficiency (PE) between 47% and 75% and a correlation coefficient (CC) between 51.3% and 78.9% for the period from 1 March 2013 to 31 December 2017.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
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Authors/Creators: |
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Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | © 2018 American Geophysical Union. This is an author-produced version of a paper subsequently published in Space Weather. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. |
Keywords: | Radiation belts; Low energy electrons; System Identification; Machine Learning; Forecasting; ring current |
Dates: |
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Institution: | The University of Sheffield |
Academic Units: | The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Engineering (Sheffield) > Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering (Sheffield) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number Natural Environment Research Council [2006-2012] NE/P017061/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Sheffield |
Date Deposited: | 23 May 2019 15:23 |
Last Modified: | 17 May 2024 15:48 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
Refereed: | Yes |
Identification Number: | 10.1029/2018sw002128 |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:146498 |