Lopez Garcia, M orcid.org/0000-0003-3833-8595, King, MF orcid.org/0000-0001-7010-476X and Noakes, C orcid.org/0000-0003-3084-7467 (2019) A multi-compartment SIS stochastic model with zonal ventilation for the spread of nosocomial infections: detection, outbreak management and infection control. Risk Analysis, 39 (8). pp. 1825-1842. ISSN 0272-4332
Abstract
In this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patients. For each ventilation setting, we measure the infectious potential of a nosocomial outbreak in the hospital ward by means of a summary statistic: the number of infections occurred within the hospital ward until end or declaration of the outbreak. We analytically compute the distribution of this summary statistic, and carry out local and global sensitivity analysis in order to identify the particular characteristics of each ventilation regime with the largest impact on the epidemic spread. Our results show that ward ventilation can have a significant impact on the infection spread, especially under slow detection scenarios or in overoccupied wards, and that decreasing the infection risk for the whole hospital ward might increase the risk in specific areas of the health‐care facility. Moreover, the location of the initial infective individual and the protocol in place for outbreak declaration both form an interplay with ventilation of the ward.
Metadata
Item Type: | Article |
---|---|
Authors/Creators: |
|
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: | ©2019 Society for Risk Analysis. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article: Lopez Garcia, M , King, MF and Noakes, C (2019) A multi-compartment SIS stochastic model with zonal ventilation for the spread of nosocomial infections: detection, outbreak management and infection control. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.5518/355. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. |
Keywords: | Airborne spread; nosocomial infections; outbreak detection; SIS stochastic model; summary statistic |
Dates: |
|
Institution: | The University of Leeds |
Academic Units: | The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Civil Engineering (Leeds) The University of Leeds > Faculty of Engineering & Physical Sciences (Leeds) > School of Mathematics (Leeds) > Applied Mathematics (Leeds) |
Funding Information: | Funder Grant number MRC MR/N014855/1 EPSRC EP/P023312/1 |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Publications |
Date Deposited: | 01 Mar 2019 16:21 |
Last Modified: | 29 Mar 2021 00:38 |
Status: | Published |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Identification Number: | 10.1111/risa.13300 |
Related URLs: | |
Open Archives Initiative ID (OAI ID): | oai:eprints.whiterose.ac.uk:142957 |